SEPTEMBER OCTOBER 2006

Monday, October 23, 2006
POLITICS IN TORONTO
I am back from my evening stuffing envelopes, and I've been actually quite active doing politics in Toronto the last few days, that's why I've been gone from the computer. I was at a Jane Pitfield event on Saturday, then there was local stuff. Nothing worth talking about. In fact the good news is that that's it, I don't need to do any more political junk for awhile now, anyway.

As I say, I'm really tired of it and also discouraged and burnt right out, and I'm not alone. Lots of conservative-type people are tired and fed up and discouraged in Toronto with local politics. Already, it's clear to me that many of the local conservative candidates aren't going to do very well in the municipal election. Not well at all. One local candidate I know of has a fundraiser planned, and someone told me about all the problems she was having getting people to come out for this thing.

Personally, I have a lot more going on right now than the election. In fact it's almost certain now that I won't even be in town for the big vote. These political people are all on the prowl looking for all sorts of commitments from me to do this, that and the next thing, all this useless campaign nonsense, but it makes no difference to me now because I won't even be in Toronto on election day. I'm looking to get out of politics anyway. I'm sick and tired of the name-calling like what's gone on in Ottawa last week, with Peter MacKay allegedly calling Belinda a "dog". Also, the Garth Turner thing has me disgusted a bit. Now I hear he may join the Greens. So what! I have a big "who cares" attitude right now to the whole thing.

Citytv hosted the mayor's candidates debate on TV yesterday and there was some woman who stood up in the audience and got the microphone, and blathered that she was fed up because she expected a "non-partisan", town-hall-type debate at that thing, and that there wasn't the civil debate that there was when David Miller ran against John Tory for mayor last time. And I'm going "are you kidding me"? That mayor's debate last night was civilized compared to the free-for-all in 2003 when you had five candidates up there debating. Those debates last time put the WWE to shame. I remember John Nunziata acting like a pit-bull terrier, and Tom Jacobek on fire, and all these candidates yelling at each other. It was actually great television, but it was fierce and loud with lots of interruptions. Not that the debate the other night was any big improvement. But really, what did this woman expect? For these three to agree with one another? In fact I thought I heard Stephen LeDrew invite David Miller over for dinner or something, on TV. I don't see what this woman at the debate was complaining about.

Anyway, that's the weekend in politics, from my vantage point. Suffice it to say I'm just not that into this thing, and that's a surprise even to me, because usually I'm really interested in politics. Not this fall.

And it's cold out. Rats.
// posted by John Cairns @ 10:09 PM 1 comments

Wednesday, October 18, 2006
GARTH TURNER GETS KICKED OUT
Well, it's finally happened. Garth Turner was kicked out of the Conservative caucus today, amid accusations of breaches of caucus confidentiality.

And personally, I don't know what to make of this. I really don't think it is a good idea to kick people out of a party just because you have a reputation for being open to the press and everyone else. Garth himself is unrepentant: check out his web site http://www.garth.ca/. That's the other thing: the Conservatives are all mad at him for blogging. I have mixed feelings. On the one hand, I agree that members should speak their minds and represent their constituents first. It would do Parliament the world of good if they allowed MPs more freedom to speak their minds. But this isn't the United States where a guy like John McCain could get away with this nonsense. This is Canada, and Garth was just too uncontrollable. He just didn't know when to tow the line and shut up. I know a lot of conservatives hated Garth. They thought he had a lot of liberalish views and was a closet Liberal. But then again, lots of people thought the same thing about Belinda.

I just don't like this very much. How the heck this helps the Conservatives, I don't know. It just looks bad, and it will look even worse once Garth heads to the Liberals. The Conservatives will have basically thrown away Halton. Also, the polls show that the Conservatives and Liberals are basically tied right now and all I will say about that is: don't people in this country read the headlines or watch the news?! The people of Canada are a bunch of fools if they really want to put either Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae in as prime minister. Both are disasters waiting to happen, especially Ignatieff who has been shooting off his big mouth about Israel and getting people mad at him over his comments. Conservatives will say they aren't scared of either of these two jokers, but I am worried--- worried they'll actually get in and wreak havoc on Canada. Maybe people in the PMO should start getting a little bit more concerned about the prospect : it might do their own re-election chances the world of good if they did.

As for me, the good news is that this whole blowup with Garth has helped push back that big envelope-stuffing session that was planned. Good, I can watch sports on TV.
// posted by John Cairns @ 4:43 PM 0 comments

Wednesday, October 04, 2006
THE NEXT M.P.P. FROM DON VALLEY WEST: JOHN TORY
Well, continuing my nonstop fair-and-balanced political coverage this week, I was at the big Ontario PC event at the CNIB, the big One Year to Victory event. The big news was that John Tory stood on stage and announced he would be seeking the PC nomination in Don Valley West.

You know, these guys in the media are so biased; they were all talking about how Tory lives in George Smitherman's riding, and so why doesn't he simply go up against Smitherman and get his head blown off. They were making it look like he had no connection at all to Don Valley West! The fact is that Tory lived in Don Valley West for 48 years and was a major part of that riding's executive for a long period of time. So don't give me any of this bull about how he's some sort of carpetbagger or any of that, running here. He was more of a carpetbagger, let's face it, going into Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey for the byelection. But he had no choice; the Conservatives had no seats in Toronto. So he had to run somewhere. Besides, representing a rural area was good for him. He got exposed to the issues that rural folks are worried about, so he's more likely to deal with their problems when he gets into government. He'll end up a better premier because of it.

Now he's honoring a commitment he made to run in Toronto. I sure hope people in Don Valley West are going to be impressed by the fact that this guy's keeping his word. I sure hope so, but this is a tough seat these days. The seat is currently held by the education minister Kathleen Wynne. But for the longest time this was a PC seat, it used to be held by David Turnbull. Dennis Timbrell also represented the area at one point in time, but that was years ago. Of course, the problem is that if Tory loses in Don Valley West, well, where is he to go? He won't be able to go back to Orangeville again, not after abandoning them this time. Everyone there will be all mad at him for leaving. John Tory had better win in Don Valley West, or else.

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Anyway it was a great event, great food, met a lot of political people I knew from the previous races I was a part of.This is a municipal election year and there were plenty of municipal candidates in attendance. Jim Conlon, running in ward 33 against incumbent Shelley Carroll, was there among others.

There was a guy there who was running in the municipal elections and trying to hide from the TV cameras. He didn't want to be shown on TV because even though he's a Conservative, he's running a "non-partisan" campaign in his area and wants to serve as a non-partisan elected official for "all the people" if successful. So he didn't want people to get the wrong impression of him or be turned off that he's a Conservative! But that's the nature of municipal politics, people aren't running on party lines in these races. In Jane Pitfield's old ward there are something like 15 candidates and more than one Conservative running for council. When John Tory ran for mayor he had the backing of both Conservatives and Liberals and even had red signs, even though everyone knew he was a PC.

Also met a former camera guy from my old TV days in the region of Peel--- he was doing stuff for Omni TV. Nice to know all the great stories I did with him got him a better gig with a big TV station in Toronto.
// posted by John Cairns @ 10:13 PM 0 comments

Monday, October 02, 2006
IGNATIEFF LEADS AFTER SUPER WEEKEND

Super weekend is over and even though not all of the delegate totals are complete yet it is clear that Michael Ignatieff will be heading to the convention with a clear lead, with 30% of the delegates. Bob Rae has just under 20%, with Gerard Kennedy and Stephane Dion in a fight for third place at 17%. After all the automatic and exofficio delegates are factored in I would imagine Dion would be in third place and Kennedy fourth. Of course, these are unofficial totals and the only votes that count are the ones announced at the convention in Montreal in December.

Kennedy is being talked up by several of the bloggers and political pundits as the potential "kingmaker" at the convention. Kingmaker, yes, but why not leader? After all, he's one of the four main contenders, still, with a real shot at winning very much alive. The problem is that Kennedy bombed completely in the province of Quebec. We're not talking 5% of the vote here. We're talking about somewhere around 1%. That's pretty bad, folks.

As for Ken Dryden, Scott Brison and the rest, well, they've had it. You know, I thought Tony Clement had it bad when he only got a lousy 9% of the vote at the Conservative leadership convention in 2004, losing to Stephen Harper. But Dryden only got 5%. I guess all the problems surrounding his campaign, his supposed money problems and difficulties he was having keeping on paid staff and the like, finally caught up with him. More likely, those were symptoms of the larger problem: it's difficult to run a good campaign when nobody wants to vote for you. As for his supposed strength in Manitoba; well, so much for that, he got beat. You know, it's one thing to sell a lot of memberships. It's another thing to deliver them all to the voting locations. Dryden may have signed up a lot of people, but they all went and voted for Bob Rae, obviously, because that's who won Manitoba.

Same for Joe Volpe. So much for all the multitudes of people, alive or dead, that he recruited. He didn't win anywhere. So he's had it, too. At least all the people Kennedy signed up went to vote for him, that's why he's done as well as he did. But the Quebec debacle doesn't make him look good. The pundits are making a big issue about this all over the place, saying "Kennedy can't win in Quebec so he shouldn't be leader." And so on. Appealing to Quebec is a big issue with a lot of people. It is sort of seen as a prerequisite for the job of being Prime Minister. As for Ignatieff, I think he has to be very happy that he got around 30% of the vote across Canada. He can breathe somewhat easier, but he's still got problems. He has three potentially strong challengers who could gang up on him at the convention, and Democratic Space mentioned that the poor showings of Dryden and Brison are a big headache for him. These delegates were more likely to switch to him in later balloting, but those two did so poorly that Ignatieff is going to have to find supporters among the Kennedy, Dion and Rae camps in order to win. I think it's going to be a very interesting, and long, convention.
// posted by John Cairns @ 2:41 PM 1 comments

Sunday, October 01, 2006
MORE LIBERAL RESULTS
Just got back from a political event locally- Angela Kennedy is running for re-election to the Catholic School Board again and she had a campaign event today that I went to and met some people I know there. And no, I am not Catholic.

So anyways, I will say that I don't feel left out of all the political fun, what with all the political happenings going on all over the country involving the Liberals. Municipal elections are on and so there is plenty of action for everyone from every political stripe right now. I will say this, leadership races- real ones, not these one-sided blowouts a la Paul Martin- are lots of fun, so I do kind of envy the Liberals right now.

Check out the excellent coverage of the Liberal leadership delegate selection over at Democratic Space. Good stuff. They are reporting that Michael Ignatieff is the clear winner in the Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Bob Rae is the winner in Newfoundland and Labrador, and also is the winner in Prince Edward Island. In terms of a regional breakdown, Stephane Dion is stronger in the east, while Gerard Kennedy is stronger out west. Kennedy is not doing well at all in Quebec. Ignatieff is strong pretty much everywhere and is battling Kennedy in Ontario, while Rae expects a big result from B.C. returns. Dion's strongest showing out West appears to be in Saskatchewan.Doing much worse than expected is Ken Dryden, currently running around 5%. People were expecting him to get 9% or 10%. Not sure yet whether Manitoba has reported in, Manitoba is supposed to be Dryden's strongest province. But it looks like he's toast. And Scott Brison is now behind even Joe Volpe.

Also, with over half the vote in Gerard Kennedy has very recently pulled ahead of Stephane Dion into third place. Looks like we have a very close four-man race right now at the top, with Michael Ignatieff still holding fort with 30% of the delegate vote.More later.
// posted by John Cairns @ 3:41 PM 0 comments

IGNATIEFF IN THE LEAD; JOE VOLPE CAMPAIGN AS GOOD AS DEAD
Delegate totals with 256/467 meetings reporting in:IGNATIEFF 840RAE 533DION 468KENNEDY 447DRYDEN 133VOLPE 121BRISON 102HALL-FINDLAY 29UNCOMMITTED 58.

The good news for Ignatieff is he's running about 30%. The bad news is that everyone else is running at about 70%. And you need 50% plus one to win.

My observation is that Gerard Kennedy has come back quite a bit and is back in the running with Rae and Dion based on these totals. We've been talking about dead Liberals all week. Look at the numbers. Those deceased Liberals haven't helped Joe Volpe one bit. Let that be a lesson to you, Joe: in order to win a leadership vote, make sure your supporters are all alive! Enough said.As a well-known dead Liberal once said, the universe is unfolding as it should.
// posted by John Cairns @ 10:18 AM 0 comments

Saturday, September 30, 2006
LATEST LIBERAL DELEGATE TOTALS
5:30 EST107/465 meetings reported in:IGNATIEFF 314RAE 185DION 184KENNEDY 135BRISON 65DRYDEN 52VOLPE 41HALL-FINDLAY 17UNCOMMITTED 27.

Ignatieff is now back over 30% but he should slip back again as the Western results come in- it's still early afternoon out there so those meetings are far from over.Looks to me as if there are really four serious contenders for the Liberal leadership: Ignatieff, Rae, Dion and Kennedy.

For Liberals blogger reaction check out the Liblogs website; at least those guys are plugged in to what is going on on the ground this weekend, so they can actually tell you what is happening. Exciting times for Liberal members. And no thanks to the mainstream media who have been giving this big political weekend hardly any coverage. Instead, they're covering the usual death and destruction.

If this were the 'States these delegate selections would be getting live continuing coverage from the likes of CNN and Fox News. All the political pundits would be out in full force, and we'd have correspondents on the ground with the campaigns. Instead, we have to rely on the Liberals for all our information. Nice going, media guys. Thanks for nothing, eh? For live continuing fair and balanced coverage of the Liberal Super Weekend count on us bloggers, because let's face it, you can't count on TV news for any coverage!!!
// posted by John Cairns @ 2:30 PM 1 comments

LIBERAL SUPER WEEKEND IS HERE
Well, after a week of embarrassment for the Liberals with dead people seeking membership in the party and so on, and with stories floating around about how Liberal Belinda Stronach busted up Tie Domi's marriage, all we can say now is the time has come for the Liberals to put up or shut up.

Delegate selection is finally here and we will finally know the state of the race. No more of this guesswork, no more of this bragging by Bob Rae's people about how well he is doing. Finally, some hard numbers.With some 20% of the results in Michael Ignatieff has the lead in delegates, but he is nowhere near close to a first-ballot victory and could be had on later ballots.

Stephane Dion and Bob Rae are fighting for second place right now with Gerard Kennedy already a strong fourth. All I'd say right now is that the only person likely to be really happy with the numbers right now are Dion and his people. Unofficial, live results are here.
// posted by John Cairns @ 10:06 AM 0 comments

Sunday, September 24, 2006
JOE VOLPE IN TROUBLE AGAIN
Well, did you hear the latest big scandal to hit the troubled Joe Volpe Liberal leadership campaign?! Apparently his team signed up dead people to vote for him.

Ohoooooooo boy. And apparently he's gonna address the whole scandal on Monday. Read it here. Maybe Volpe will drop out. He should give up already.You know, signing up dead people is a huge no-no. It's obvious the rogue organizers who pulled off this stunt were trying to use these names of dead people to slip past several live ones who didn't have memberships into the hall to vote for Volpe. You're not supposed to do this, you're not supposed to allow people to get a membership unless they follow the rules and pay for it themselves. You hope these ridings will disallow these so-called memberships and not allow these people in to vote.

This is another example of rogue organizers getting a candidate in trouble. You had all this nonsense going on in 2000 during the Tom Long leadership campaign. Long's team of rogues in Quebec signed up a bunch of phony members in Quebec who hadn't paid up, who weren't interested in the party, never heard of Tom Long, and so on and so forth. So Long had to disavow these members and his campaign was mud. In any event there are all kinds of safeguards out there meant to prevent this sort of rogue activity from deciding leadership races. The party headquarters in Ottawa will simply refuse to accept the memberships. I know in the Tory leadership races that there were lots of people turned away for various reasons. There were always a number of people signed up by organizers who signed membership forms, but hadn't paid for their own memberships in the proper manner. So these names all got tossed out by the party and they didn't get to vote. And campaign teams were always on the lookout to make sure they weren't accidentally signing up dead people to vote for them, that sort of thing was bound to blow up in your face. Bottom line is there are all sorts of safeguards and procedures that have to be followed by everyone. You always have to submit these names to the party, and at the riding level they must find their names on the membership list before they are allowed in to vote. It's a credentials issue.

So I don't think we'll have to worry about dead people deciding the Liberal leadership race, this sort of activity neverworks and will always be rooted out ahead of time. But it sure can make a candidate look bad.Next week is the biggest week of the Liberal leadership campaign so far- the delegate selection meetings happen. After next week we'll have a very clear idea about the state of the delegate count going into the convention in December. It looks right now as if Michael Ignatieff is in first place, Bob Rae is in second, and everyone else is in third. And there's no way anyone is going to win on the first or even the second ballot. Really, it's that close.
// posted by John Cairns @ 10:20 AM 1 comments

Tuesday, September 12, 2006
PRESIDENT BUSH ASSASSINATED IN TORONTO
The big story is all the death and assassination going on at the Toronto Film Festival.As you may have heard by now, there was a controversial movie making the rounds here called D.O.A.P. - Death of a President. In this movie, they moved the clock up to 2007 and did a pretend-assassination of President George W. Bush. And they examined the implications of what happened in documentary-style fashion. This was a British production that aired on Channel 4 in the U.K. and was screened here at the festival on Sunday.Well, the movie has found a few takers willing to try and show this movie in the USA--- a deal was done with Newmarket to distribute the film in the U.S., and the distribution deals come to something like $7.5 million dollars. Read about it here.

President Bush isn't the only name politician under attack in Toronto. There's another movie here entitled The Prisoner or: How I Planned to Kill Tony Blair. What timing too, eh? Screening here, just a week after Blair announces he's planning to quit. And just to show there's equal time given to Democratic politicians, they also are bumping off Bobby Kennedy. The Emilio Estevez flick Bobby, to be screened in the next few days here, was also shown at the Venice Film Festival.

What's with all this killing going on in these political movies here in town?! Seems like all these movie makers are taking out their frustrations on all these politicians, all at once. There's blood on the floor of this film festival! I find it interesting that there was even an American distributor found for this ghastly George Bush death pic. Such a movie would have been unthinkable a few years ago. It shows you how much the political climate has changed down there in the USA. The fact that distributors there think there are actually people in the United States willing to pay to watch a movie about the sitting President getting assassinated--- that says a lot about the President's popularity, or the lack of it right now.

Still, it is kind of sick when you think of it--- seeing a movie screened here where Bush gets bumped off. When are we going to get a movie where Osama bin Laden is killed?! Better yet, why don't these American troops find that guy and capture him already, for real?
// posted by John Cairns @ 6:57 PM 0 comments