WHITHER THE KENNEDY-DION ALLIANCE

Here is Adam Radwanski's take on the supposed Gerard Kennedy-Stephane Dion alliance talks.

Basically it all comes down to this "recognizing-Quebec-as-a-nation-within-Canada" nonsense. Earlier this week Gerard Kennedy lay claim to the Trudeau wing of the Liberal party by coming out against the legislation. He thinks Canada is one nation, like all the rest of the Trudeaumaniacs, and won't give an inch in recognizing the Quebecois nation, feeling that it is just giving ammunition to the separatists. Dion of course voted for it last night in the Commons. So what gives with the supposed "alliance" of these two? Where's the common ground after what went down yesterday? Radwanski is saying that " if Kennedy wants to be friends, he has a funny way of showing it".

Maybe this "deal", if there still is a deal, is one of those one-sided ones where one guy goes to the other, but not necessarily vice versa. Or maybe they still do a deal in spite of their differences, but the delegates don't follow their candidate because of the Quebec issue.

Me, I can still see Kennedy and Dion getting together at the convention in spite of this issue. But I don't see all the delegates going with them, especially if it's Dion who gets eliminated on the second ballot. His supporters include a hefty chunk of Quebec supporters and like heck will many of them go to someone opposed to recognizing the Quebecois "nation".

If this "deal" falls apart, what happens? Could either of these guys go to Rae or Ignatieff? I could see Dion throw his support to Ignatieff under the right circumstances, but I don't think he can deliver all his delegates to anyone. They're likely to split every which way no matter what, if Dion winds up eliminated in fourth place.

Kennedy would seem to have much more control over his own delegates, though, and I think they are less likely to care about the "nation" issue and are more concerned about opening the party up and revitalizing it, and so on. On this issue Dion has a shot at picking up the majority of Kennedy delegates, provided he gets an endorsement out of him. I think if Dion can agree to a few policy planks, and come up with some concrete proposals in line with Kennedy's call for a more open party and so on, then Kennedy would certainly feel comfortable in a Dion-led party in spite of their differences and would agree to back him. It's not as if anyone else is likely to agree with Kennedy on Quebec.

So that's where the deal is likely to happen, if it's going to happen. Then maybe Dion would stand a chance of vaulting past Bob Rae to face Ignatieff on the final ballot. But if Dion can't vault past Kennedy all bets are off, because Dion can't count on delivering his delegates to Kennedy, even if he does a deal with him. That's my analysis.

Personally, I think these two are going to continue to talk, and the discussions are likely to get really interesting. How the heck they will be able to get all their delegates together in a common front is a good question, even if these two endorse each other. But if I were Michael Ignatieff I would definitely be feeling good right now. If Radwanski's analysis is right, this is the first sign that the stop-Ignatieff coalition is going to be as effective as the 1968 stop-Trudeau coalition---- in one word, "not."

In other news, you know that big policy debate they were going to have at the Liberal convention over the Quebec "nation" issue? Well, they met behind closed doors and decided to withdraw the motion on it. Smart move. If this thing got debated in public the Liberals would have torn themselves apart on national television. Might as well keep things quiet.

GOODALE BACKS RAE

In other interesting Liberal news Saskatchewan local Liberal Ralph Goodale is backing Ontario's Bob Rae. Maybe he thinks this will score him some points in NDP Saskatchewan. What he needs to realize is that in Saskatchewan this will do him absolutely no good because the NDP are really unpopular there at the moment, and this move is going to be really unpopular among the many Saskatchewan voters who vote Liberal in order to stop the NDP. This is going to drive those few people out of the Liberal camp and over to the Conservatives. Way to go, Ralph.

Actually, I'm really quite surprised with this endorsement. You would think Goodale would be more comfortable with a guy like Ignatieff. But maybe he realizes that Ignatieff is a disaster waiting to happen. I don't know why he thinks Rae isn't a disaster waiting to happen, also, but hey? That's politics.