Monday, December 04, 2006

VIVE LA FRANCE

I've really enjoyed covering the political leadership races in the past week. It makes me feel connected and plugged in to politics again, and I feel this blog has gotten off to a good start. In the past several months my political involvement seemed, well, pretty futile in nature. I was doing a lot of things that I didn't really want to do in politics and I think being a writer and commentator, ranting about what is happening, is a better fit. Now I can say exactly what I think and not have to march to a party line all the time.

Anyway Ed Stelmach won the leadership of the Alberta PCs and you could hardly get any coverage from the mainstream media. I had to tune in to Calgary radio stations to get any information at all. QR77 was busy running old-time radio shows and interrupting it with results every 15 minutes. Anyway it was a big upset. I think it was a case of people realizing Ted Morton was not going to do the party any good, so they went with Stelmach because they knew Jim Dinning wouldn't be able to stop Morton. So that's that about that.

In other news, we've learned today that Stephane Dion is a French citizen. That's right, a dual citizen of the Republique is leading the Liberals.

I think our Governor-General was in a spat like that, too. Anyway, nice to know that the Liberals want to install a foreigner from France as Prime Minister. Vive la France!

Just kidding folks. Actually I don't have a problem with dual citizens, as long as they remain loyal to Canada. Besides, it gives Canadians an escape route if the wrong government gets into power again. Au revoir, eh?

Saturday, December 02, 2006

PREMIER ED?!

Welcome to another edition of Convention Night In Canada. In our second half of the double-header the Alberta PCs are picking a Premier tonight.

And in the big shocker Ed Stelmach, who had the endorsement of most of the departing candidates who lost on the first ballot, is in the fight with Jim Dinning and could end up winning this thing. Dinning leads (thanks to those $5 instant Tories who wanted to stop Ted Morton because they thought he was too extreme), but Stelmach is a strong second and was actually running first for a while. If Ted Morton falls off the ballot ( and keep in mind that he says his southern base hasn't reported in yet), then Stelmach could end up winning.

Could we have another upset in the making? It looks like it!!! In fact it looks like we could be up all night counting.

Links to Larry Johnsrude and to CTV.

STEPHANE WHO?

I just couldn't resist.

Stephane Dion wins the leadership of the Liberals-- probably the wildest Liberal convention I've ever seen. He had it in the bag after the third ballot.

Now the question is: who is going to care about the big Alberta PC vote? That's going to end tonight, too.

BOB RAE IS RELEASING HIS DELEGATES

Peter Mansbridge on the CBC was pretty sure Bob Rae wasn't going to go to anyone and would simply keep his own counsel. And that is exactly what he is doing. Now we hear Ignatieff is trying a last ditch effort to get Rae onside; it appears to be over, though.

Ignatieff is on TV right now saying the minister of health in Ontario, George Smitherman, is endorsing him, which ends the drama about whether Ignatieff is going to simply give up in Svend Robinson-type fashion. (That's what Svend did at an NDP convention). Ignatieff trying to hang his hat on the "win-ability" issue, trying to argue Dion can't win, but it's really hard to argue that case when you are now losing.

UPDATE ON RAE SUPPORTERS GOING ELSEWHERE:

SCOTT BRISON is endorsing Michael Ignatieff.
JUDY SGRO, who earlier endorsed Martha Hall Findlay and then Bob Rae, is now backing Ignatieff.
RALPH GOODALE, who had endorsed Rae is now endorsing Stephane Dion.
LLOYD AXWORTHY is also endorsing Dion.
MAURIZIO BEVILACQUA is going to Dion.
HEDY FRY is supporting Dion, too. Like I say, it looks pretty good for Dion right now.

STEPHANE DION IS IN FIRST PLACE

This convention is OVER. Stephane Dion 1782. Michael Ignatieff 1660. Bob Rae is eliminated with 1375. This is DONE. Dion has it won on the fourth ballot.

THIS IS IT

I don't know about you but I'm on pins and needles. This is the ballgame, this third ballot. There are over a thousand votes freed up by the second ballot departures of Kennedy and Dryden. The question is whether Dion can overcome that gap with Rae, and whether Rae can grow by just enough to withstand the surge to Dion that is coming. If he can't Stephane Dion will end up leader of the Liberal party on the fourth ballot.

Ignatieff is stuck there with his block of votes, he isn't going anywhere---- except home after the final balloting is over. They put up poll numbers that suggest so many people in the convention hall just don't want Ignatieff. Anyway, here we go.

DION SURGE

What an exciting convention it has turned out to be and we still don't know what is going to happen, and who is going to end up winning. The third ballot, as I see it, is going to be the ballgame. Michael Ignatieff, to me, is dead on his feet; the only question is whether Bob Rae or Stephane Dion emerges as leader of the party.

The big news was that Gerard Kennedy bailed out after the second ballot and endorsed Dion. That was a huge move because Kennedy has about 884 votes, and Dion has 974. That's a huge bloc of votes and it will be enough to vault Dion past Rae, and possibly even Ignatieff, too, if they all end up voting for Dion.Rae is in deep trouble. He picked up Ken Dryden, and his 219 supporters are mostly going to Rae. The problem is a huge chunk of Kennedy supporters are supporting Dion. Rae has 1132 votes on the second ballot and is poised to grow on the third ballot, but he is only 158 votes ahead of Dion. It looks like a squeaker on the third ballot and it looks like Dion way well take Rae out, and set up a Dion-Iggy final ballot.

As for Ignatieff, he has no momentum at all. None of the other candidates have endorsed him, and he only received 1481 votes; not much of a gain. I thought that in a final-3 scenario that Iggy needed something like 43% of the vote in his corner to have any sort of chance on a final ballot against anyone. But it's clear he will be nowhere near that. This gaffe-filled campaign is in enormous trouble at this moment.

The other thing is that Robert Fife is reporting that most of the Rae supporters aren't going to go to Ignatieff under any circumstances. There was a supposed meeting on the floor where Ignatieff and Rae met one another and shook hands, but that was more of a show of party unity than any sort of deal. A lot of people think that if Rae is kicked out as the low man on the third ballot that he will simply endorse no one.

But I think Dion is in really good shape right now. It's all going to come down to the third ballot and whether Rae can hold Dion off. If he can, Rae can win the leadership. But I don't think he can do it. I think Dion's in a position to surge past Rae on the next ballot and end Rae's chances. This leadership is Dion's for the taking right now.

And it looks as if the Liberals will be out of the hall in time to see the Leafs take on the Habs down the street.

LATEST RUMORS

Heard on CTV from Robert Fife that Gerard Kennedy may bail after the second ballot and go straight to Dion. Supposedly there is an anyone-but-Rae move in Ontario because they know how toxic the guy is there with voters. We'll see what the ballot results are before any of this happens.

Now a rumor that Dryden is going to Dion is floating.

SECOND BALLOT IS ON---- WE COULD BE HERE A WHILE

Right now the story is big momentum for Dion, and also for Rae. But Rae needs a lot more than a hundred-or-so vote lead over Dion and Kennedy if he's going to win.

Scott Brison has endorsed Rae.
Martha Hall Findlay has gone to Dion.

Wild rumors about how Iggy's support is going to melt like an ice cube. I doubt it, but we'll see. What's clear is that his momentum is shot. He has no one going to him right now.

And finally, Ken Dryden is staying on the second ballot and there are rumors about him possibly endorsing Gerard Kennedy. Like I say, get ready for five freaking ballots and a lot of angry hockey fans at 7PM EST if this keeps up. I doubt anyone's gonna withdraw from here on in, they're going to have to be knocked out by finishing last. It's too close.

Friday, December 01, 2006

BIG NEWS: DION IS THIRD

Results of the first ballot are in and the big shock is that Stephane Dion has nosed out Gerard Kennedy for third place. CalgaryGrit isn't going to be pleased with this.

The other news is that Michael Ignatieff fell short of the 30% mark he needed to have to have a strong chance of winning. If there really is a deal in the works between Kennedy and Dion at some point, and it looks as if we won't know about who is going to be third for a while, then whoever benefits from such a deal is in great shape to vault past Bob Rae and possibly finish him off. Rae really needs the minor candidates in his corner to stave off such a deal, if it happens.

The numbers are Ignatieff 1412, Rae 977, Dion 856, Kennedy 854, Dryden 256, Brison 192, Volpe (who has withdrawn and endorsed Rae) 156, and Martha Hall Findlay 130.

The plot thickens.

FIRST BALLOT RESULTS:

http://www.liberal.ca/leadership2006_results_e.aspx

WAITING FOR RESULTS

The first ballot results should be known by 11:30 PM EST, that's 10:30 CST and 8:30 Pacific. (So they said.)

I gotta say that CTV and CPAC have done a great job covering this convention. CPAC has been right on top of all the deals and rumors going on; their coverage has definitely been the most extensive. It was them that made a big deal about Dryden and Dion not getting their speeches done on time. And CTV Newsnet has done a great job covering the convention and keeping on top of all the stuff happening, especially the Joe Volpe move to Rae. The people covering this thing clearly know their politics.

Their reporters and guests are much better than the glum folks over at the CBC, who kept harping on people's performances and who didn't seem to keep on top of all the big news going on. What the heck has gotten into those folks? What a below-average performance from people who ought to be cleaning up the joint on a story like this.

Boo to CBC who bailed out of their live coverage just as Volpe was going over to give Rae the handshake. Talk about a bad show on their part. I'll bet you they will bail out if this convention runs into their hockey coverage. And where the heck is Global News?! Showing Entertainment Tonight, that's what they were doing this evening!! What a poor show by both these television networks. Global didn't even bother to show up tonight, they just mailed it in with their newscast and that was it. I guess they will show coverage on Saturday. Maybe they will break in with the first ballot result tonight. But all I will say is that was bad.

Anyway, found a blog from CTV about the convention. And the www.Liblogs.ca site has lots of chatter from Liberals about who they think performed the best.

Lots of people had plenty of good things to say about Ken Dryden's speech which, despite the abrupt ending, was a really sound performance. To describe the speeches, Ignatieff was slick and loaded with fancy video, Bob Rae was off the cuff, Gerard Kennedy was fiery and flamboyant, and Stephane Dion was Stephane Dion, as you would expect. And Scott Brison talked throughout his speech about the environment- you would think he might endorse Dion later, another greenie.

UPDATE: Some great convention video and interviews over at Blogging Tories. Check it out at http://www.bloggingtories.ca/bttv/ .

ANOTHER UPDATE: Read on Cerberus' blog that while Volpe went to Rae a lot of his campaign team went to Ignatieff.

Shades of what went on at the Ontario PC convention in 2002. Tony Clement quit the race and endorsed Ernie Eves, but much of his campaign team went and endorsed Jim Flaherty instead. The only difference there was that many of Tony's supporters all over the province at these voting locations simply got up and went home, they didn't go to anyone. Anyway, my two cents.

THE BIG VOLPE MOVE IS ON

Joe Volpe is moving over to Rae as I write this and he is standing with him as we speak. CTV and CPAC covered it live. Meanwhile CBC cut to The National as soon as Michael Ignatieff was done speaking.

Fools. These moves are the reason people watch conventions. This is great theatre, watching candidates bail out and go to support someone else.

The first big deal of the convention and I know for a fact the Volpe supporters hate Ignatieff's guts, so I wouldn't be surprised if Rae gets most of Volpe's vote. Also, I hear that Ken Dryden doesn't want to move anywhere, so get ready for five long freaking ballots if that's what's happening.

VOLPE TO RAE

Breaking news from a number of sources, including Canadian Press, that Joe Volpe is going to abandon his leadership bid after the first ballot and will be endorsing Bob Rae.

Rae about to speak and no doubt he will be getting plenty of questions about this--- this is exactly the kind of question he wants to hear people ask him.

STEPHANE DION GETS CUT OFF

For the second time this evening a candidate ran out of alloted speech time. Stephane Dion had to wrap it up as soon as the music started playing. Ken Dryden had to wrap it up early, too. Talk about embarrassing.

Are these other candidates in the same boat? I'll bet you Rae and Ignatieff have to be rewriting their speeches and tossing things out as we speak. The pundits are roasting Dion on television for looking like he's not ready for prime time.

This never happened at the conventions I went to, everyone was able to get their speeches over with in time Reminds me of the Conservative convention when Stephen Harper spoke. Everyone had something like 25 minutes of time available, but Harper's speech lasted a grand total of eight or nine minutes! I was in the hall when it happened and all I will say is: that was a really effective way to avoid this whole problem!

Better to have a speech go too short than too long! This looks like an Academy Awards show with all the speeches being cut off. If these Liberals aren't competent enough to give a speech how competent are they to run a country? Good question.

LIBERALS GIVE KEN DRYDEN THE HOOK

Well, Ken Dryden's speech went so long that the music started playing and Dryden had to wrap it up by saying "I want my Canada back!" and that was it. First big train wreck of speech night. Shades of what happened with David Orchard when they cut his mikes off on stage. But at least Dryden had a chance to wrap it up.

Interesting speech, but quite clearly Dryden isn't going to win this Cup.

The other thing I hear now about Dryden is that this fool is not going to quit, that he'll stay on the ballot until he's eliminated. Which means this freaking convention might end up going five ballots!

So now you know who to blame if this convention interrupts Hockey Night in Canada: the hockey guy.

SHADES OF '68

I gotta say, this Liberal leadership convention is the most exciting one I have seen in years, certainly at the national level. The last time we had excitement like this was, well, 1968 when Pierre Trudeau got in.

Looking back at the most exciting conventions in Canadian history, certainly the Liberal convention in 1968 stands alone as the only Liberal convention in living memory that was exciting. Richard Gwyn says of it in the Toronto Star:

That convention had drama, melodrama, style, passion, rage, anguish.
Best of all, and most un-Canadian of all, it had sex — the generalized, "Peace and Love" sexiness of the 1960s. The flamboyant sexiness of all the mini-skirted hostesses of most of the candidates, Trudeau of course having the sexiest hostesses. And the sheer raw sex appeal of Trudeau himself, cool, ironic, mocking, detached and teasing Canadians into getting into a mania about him. He was our way of carrying on the sophistication and spirit of Expo '67, and also our way of having our own John F. Kennedy.


I read somewhere that you can tell the parties apart by how they act at these conventions. The Liberals have sex, the Conservatives get drunk, and the NDP bury you in lots of pamphlets. What's interesting is that the Reform conventions were even worse than the NDP as far as burying people in literature were concerned. Those conventions had to be the most boring ever, which is probably the main reason that party ended up out of business.

Anyway the Liberal conventions seem more like my kind of convention, with lots of girls in miniskirts. Why I ended up a Conservative I don't know. Certainly the Tory conventions I went to had less girls and more booze. And more food. If you want good eats, attend a Tory leadership convention.

Back to exciting conventions. I'd nominate the 1968 Liberal convention as the most exciting. Certainly the ones that came after were quite dull affairs: the 1984 second-ballot John Turner cakewalk, and 1990 one-ballot Jean Chretien win, and the even more one-sided 2003 Paul Martin coronation. As for the other parties, the NDP have staged some pretty wild conventions; I won't forget when Svend Robinson threw in the towel despite leading on the first ballot to hand the leadership to Alexa McDonough even though the final ballot wasn't even finished yet. That was bizarre.

But the wildest conventions at the national level were held by the PCs. 1967, when they kicked John Diefenbaker out to make room for Robert Stanfield, who won on the fifth ballot. 1976, when Joe Clark went from third place to victory on the fourth ballot. 1983, when the anyone-but-Clark forces knocked out Joe and elected Brian Mulroney. No one forgets the attempt by John Crosbie to swing a deal at that convention that would have seen Joe drop out and endorse Crosbie to stop Mulroney. Brian Peckford was on national television pleading with Clark to withdraw.

And of course the most infamous convention was in 2003, when Peter MacKay did the deal with David Orchard in order to prevent Jim Prentice from becoming PC leader. That was the most infamous deal in the history of Canadian politics.

That was great stuff, and I'm hoping to see more of this this weekend. Maybe that's why there's so much grudging admiration from these jealous Tories on these Conservative blogs, seeing the Liberals fight it out in Montreal, because it's been a long time since we've seen an exciting leadership convention at the national stage. Especially from the Liberals. At least we've seen some dramatic second-ballots out of the PCs and out of the Canadian Alliance. But the Liberal races have been blowouts. The only Liberal conventions that were exciting were their provincial conventions in Ontario. I know that in Ontario they had quite a few that went five ballots and one was decided by a margin of nine votes! Another was decided by something like five in the morning! But their national races were over by the time Hockey Night in Canada aired.

Not this time, it looks like, and that's fun to see.

JOE VOLPE IS UP THERE

Joe Volpe is speaking and all I will say about his presentation is was it ever low rent. What the heck was that all about, that slideshow at the beginning? No video, nothing, just slides of Volpe attempting to kick a football and hanging out with all these immigrants and new Canadians, set to the tune "life is a highway"!

Talk about amateur hour. Even Martha Hall Findlay put up a more professional effort. He hasn't even been able to bring all of his delegates here, either.

This has been the worst campaign of the whole bunch of them with the scandals and the rest of it, and it continues to be the worst campaign, right to the bitter end--- and believe me, the end will be bitter for Volpe.

SPEECHES ARE ON

The Liberal speeches are on in Montreal. Martha Hall Findlay spoke and she sounded like an NDPer in her speech.

Now Scott Brison is up there. Later tonight, another turncoat, Bob Rae, who based on a press release we are hearing about, looks like a sure loser to Michael Ignatieff.

I went over to the Warren Kinsella website and he posted a press release floated out there by the Ignatieff campaign that claims Ignatieff has registered far more of his own delegates than the other candidates have for theirs. We'll see what happens. Here's the release in its entirety with all the numbers.
-------------------------------

For Immediate Release:
Michael Ignatieff Extends Lead OTTAWA (December 1, 2006) – Liberal leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff has extended his lead over the other candidates based on the results of registration released by the Liberal Party early this afternoon.
According to the results, Michael Ignatieff leads in the number and percentage of delegates that have arrived and registered for the Liberal Leadership Convention this weekend. We are delighted with this result. This shows the strength of our candidate and our organization as we head into this final weekend of the campaign and leadership vote, said Bob Richardson, Michael Ignatieff’s convention co-chair.
The results are as follows:
Number of Delegates Registered Percentage of Delegates Elected
Michael Ignatieff 1059 77%
Gerard Kennedy 619 76%
Stephane Dion 550 73%
Martha Hall-Findlay 33 73%
Bob Rae 689 73%
Scott Brison 125 69%
Ken Dryden 161 68%
Joe Volpe 105 47%
For more information on Michael Ignatieff's campaign, visit: http://www.michaelignatieff.ca/.
- 30 -

FIRST BALLOT IS UNDER WAY

The voting is under way for the first ballot at the Liberal leadership convention, over an hour behind schedule because of a problem processing the alternate delegates at the convention. Later they will have the candidate speeches and the first ballot results will be known later tonight.

If you're wondering, this is highly unusual for a convention to hold a first ballot during the candidate speeches, but I guess this was the way they did it at the last convention the Liberals held, which was a total Paul Martin coronation. They held the first ballot on Friday night, the night that Bono spoke.

Big news: Stephane Dion has picked up the endorsement of Allan Rock.

All I have to say is this is already more exciting than those American political conventions. The networks will be showing live coverage on TV to see who will crash and burn on stage tonight.

THE GREAT JEAN CHRETIEN IS SPEAKING

All the cable news channels in Canada are running a live presser with Jean Chretien facing the reporting mob.

Interesting that one of the reporters was asking Chretien whether he was going to have a show of unity with Paul Martin, but all he could come up with as a response was that Martin was a good minister for him for nine years. He most notably did not say Martin was a good Prime Minister. Seems the bad blood is still there.

And of course he speaks tomorrow. Chretien is definitely getting his rock star moment today. Political conventions are fun times.